As countries around the globe pull the lockdown lever in response to the spread of Covid-19, Tom Helmof Willis Towers Watson, and David Shepherd of Solera take a look at what the early global repair industry statistics show, what we might learn from China as it starts to reopen, and the potential implications for vehicle damage claims and UK motor insurers
The unprecedented nature of the Covid-19 crisis and the world going into lockdown creates a great deal of uncertainty, particularly for the insurance industry, which relies heavily on past experience to predict the future and for making key business decisions. Gaining insight from countries at the forefront of the pandemic is therefore a valuable source to inform insurers on developments they might expect, while recognising each country is likely to experience its own variations.
China’s experience
China is five to six weeks ahead of European countries, with the first death from Covid-19 recorded on 11 January 2020. Restrictions began on 16 January and ultimately led to what the Wall Street Journal described as the largest quarantine in human history.
From a motor claims perspective, China’s new claims volume dropped by 40% over the initial three working days (16 to 20 January) and then, just two days later, the volume tumbled to zero and stayed there for three weeks through to 10 February (*). Throughout the remainder of