Lloyd’s predicts 2022 FIFA World Cup victor based on insurable value of players

Lloyd’s of London has predicted that England will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup based on the collective insurable value of the team’s players.

The England men’s team will beat Brazil in the final and emerge victorious at this year’s World Cup taking place in Qatar from 20 November, according to Lloyd’s.

Lloyd’s, which writes more than £150m in sports-related accident and health policies every year, has successfully predicted the winners of the last two competitions based on the insurable value of the players and teams competing.

England will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup, with France, Argentina and Spain falling just behind. The same model correctly identified Germany as winners in 2014 and France in 2018.

Research published with the support of the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) ranked the teams based on the collective insurable value of their players. The assessment of each insurable value comprises a variety of metrics such as wages, sponsorships, age and on-field position.

With an estimated insurable value of £3.17bn, England edge out France (£2.66bn) and Brazil (£2.56bn) to claim the top spot.

By way of overall comparison, the average insurable value of one England or France player is more than the entire Costa Rica squad.

Using this methodology to play out the tournament in full, the Lloyd’s model sees England finish top of Group B, before securing knock-out wins against Senegal, France, Spain and Brazil.

In total, tournament players have an estimated insurable value of almost £22bn, an increase of nearly £9bn since 2018.

Lloyd’s said the research is designed to emphasise the need for athletes at all levels and in all sports to consider their insurance protection packages and coverage.

Bruce Carnegie-Brown, chairman of Lloyd’s, said: “Insurance can play a key role in building confidence and resilience, knowing you’re covered if the worst happens.

“As Lloyd’s goes for the hat-trick of correct World Cup predictions, we’re shining a spotlight on the need for protection at all levels of the game—professional and amateur—to help clubs, competitors and communities make braver decisions both on and off the pitch.”

Other key findings from the Lloyd’s include:

• New for 2022, Lloyd’s has compiled a most insurable team of players taking part across the tournament. England’s Jude Bellingham is rated the most insurable player at the FIFA World Cup, followed by France’s Kylian Mbappé and Brazil’s Vinícius Júnior.
• Players aged between 18 and 24 have an average insurable value of £32m compared to £12m for players over 31.
• Forward players’ average insurable value remains the highest at £34m.
• Group B, containing England (£3.17bn), USA (£410m), Wales (£180m), and Iran (£101m), is the strongest group in terms of insurable value, amounting to a cumulative £3.9 billion.

Image sources: Lloyd’s and Canva

Mark Dugdale